Controversy Stirs as ACT Anticipates Average Bushfire Risk

Expected to worsen throughout summer


Millions of Australians have been issued a warning to anticipate an elevated risk of fire hazards this summer, as the impending fire season will be fueled by arid conditions and above-average temperatures.

A bushfire prognosis for summer 2023 has been published by the Australian and New Zealand National Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC). This outlook identifies the communities throughout the nation that are most susceptible to fire emergencies in the coming year.

According to the map, substantial portions of Queensland, New South Wales, the Territory of Queensland, certain regions of Tasmania, Victoria, South Australia, and Western Australia are most vulnerable.

This increased risk, according to AFAC, was caused by above-average temperatures in early spring and arid conditions, which were anticipated to deteriorate throughout the summer.

"Throughout the summer, the profusion of vegetation growth aided by prior La Niña precipitation will persist in its dry state, thereby augmenting the combustibility of fuel loads." "Some regions were consumed by fires during the 2019-20 season," AFAC stated.


According to AFAC, significant portions of eastern, central, and northern New South Wales will experience an increased fire risk this summer.

Due to above-average temperatures and a substantial reduction in precipitation during the spring, vegetation such as grasses, soils, and forest fuels have dried "extremely quickly."

It is anticipated that the widespread drought that is currently gripping the state will continue through the summer.

Additionally, grass fuel has grown rapidly throughout the state, including in the regions where the Black Summer bushfires raged from 2019 to 2020, due to above-average precipitation in prior years.

"A number of fires have rapidly spread through regions that were burned during Black Summer, indicating that these regions have regrown to the extent that they can no longer impede or slow the spread of fires under elevated conditions," AFAC stated.

State of Queensland

A significant portion of Queensland is anticipated to be more susceptible to bushfires this summer, as a result of the state's continued El Niño positive influence.

Normal summer precipitation is anticipated for the north-west, central, and southern regions of Queensland; however, vegetation and soils afflicted with "moisture deficiencies" could cause a postponement in the rain's effect on conflagration fuel.

Northern Territory

The regions of Katherine, the Top End, and Arnhem have a normal fire risk due to increased fire scar coverage and average grass fuel loading.

The visible, blackened surface that remains after bushfires consume vegetation is referred to as a "fire scar."

Fuel burdens, which refer to the accumulation of fallen bark, leaf debris, and small branches in a given location, are essential for maintaining a fire.

As the combustible burden increases, so does the temperature of the conflagration.

However, dry conditions continue to affect the regions of Barkly and Tanami in the NT and Central Australia.

The regions of Barkly, Tanami, Alice Springs, and Lassiter are anticipated to encounter fire potential levels that surpass the norm.


During the winter and spring, precipitation is anticipated to be substantially lower in eastern, western, and central Victoria, resulting in a fire risk that is above average.

Although the remainder of the state is expected to experience an average fire risk, AFAC has stated that significant fire activity is still possible.

Western Australia

Precipitation is anticipated to begin later than usual in the Kimberley and Pilbara regions in the north of the state as a consequence of El Niño; this may extend the bushfire season.

The likelihood that firefighting in southern Washington will be significantly hampered by warmer and drier conditions increases the danger of bushfires.

South Australia

AFAC reports that fuel levels are average throughout the majority of South Australia; however, they are exceptionally high in the Mid North and Southern Flinders ranges, thereby increasing the risk of fire in those regions.

The maximal temperatures for the entire state are projected to be above average from December to February, and a prolonged fire danger season is anticipated for large portions of the state.

Tasmanian territory

The southeastern region, the Midlands, and the East Coast have all had a "significantly" dryer winter than is typical for this time of year.

Thus, the ingredients for bushfires become dryer.

An anticipated early summer with below-average precipitation may result in the expansion of high-risk fire zones to encompass the Northern Midlands, Fingal, and Royal George valleys by the turn of the year.

The capital territory of Australia

The ACT is anticipated to experience an average risk of bushfires this summer, as the weather forecast predicts average precipitation and higher conditions.

Rob Webb, chief executive officer of AFAC, emphasised the significance of all Australians preparing for the impending bushfire season and having an emergency plan in place.

"Many Australian fire agencies have been tasked with responding to bushfires in their communities and across state lines since the beginning of the bushfire season," he said.

"By preparing for bushfires this summer, communities can support our fire departments and ensure the safety of their members."


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Navin Lamsal


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